ORANGE PARK - With the latest playoff set up in the FHSAA, the drama of playing district foes is not quite the same as when the district champion and district runner-up made the playoffs, but the tilting point of a few teams will become very apparent after this Friday's slate of games.
Middleburg, with an unbeaten 5-0 record and a Friday 27-0 bashing of Ridgeview with a strong first quarter, then lights out, then a cruise control rest of the game, has to be the odds-on favorite at this point in district 3-5A through October with Orange Park coming to town, then a BYE, then a three-game gauntlet of Ponte Vedra, Beachside and Fleming Island on tap.
Middleburg coach Ryan Wolfe flexed a little muscle with a touchdown bomb to Deshun Green from quarterback Carson Stewart and some strong running from Travis Pinkard putting the Panthers away quickly. Middleburg's fast-moving defense; Kadin Hanifen, Gabe Baker and big man BJ Carter were unmoved by Ridgeview's attempt at power football with big back Christian Felder trying to weave through traffic for green grass.
Orange Park, 1-4, has also a win over Ridgeview, 26-0 in game one, but the Raiders have been hapless since with everyone scoring more than 40 points. Middleburg may want to exorcise last year's upset by the Raiders, but I think coach Wolfe will be more intent on getting through the game and being super healthy for this gauntlet after the BYE week.
In Class 5A, despite being 5-0, Middleburg is still ranked state-wide behind Ponte Vedra; No. 9, Beachside; No. 14, and Fleming Island; No. 21. Middleburg sits at No. 31 mainly for a -18.1 strength of schedule.
Clay, on the other hand, has been battling teams between the 20s, but not being able to find the end zone. Antonio Thomas went for 11 catches and 174 yards in a 24-7 loss to First Coast (see Mike Zima's story) and is likely to unload on Ridgeview if quarterback Landon Martin stays on target.
If Clay gets on top of Ridgeview, the Blue Devils also get a BYE, but must come back to take on St. Augustine. That's a big call with the Yellow Jackets, still ranked fourth in Class 4A, stinging from Friday's loss to unbeaten Nease 35-34 in overtime.
If Ridgeview takes out Clay, and that is possible I guess, coach Merlin Smith has winless KIPP for a confidence boost, but then Columbia and St. Augustine looming.
For the Raiders, it is now or never for coach Marcus Wimberly to get his playoff spot that he narrowly missed last year. Take out Middleburg again, Westside next after their 11-8 win over Ribault, then the Raiders get Ponte Vedra, Beachside and end with Clay. Run the table, they could sneak in.
Down at Keystone Heights, after a strong 14-6 win over Dixie County that could turn things around for the Indians, they get to travel to unbeaten Bradford County (4-0, with an 18-13 win over Mandarin last week). Bradford County is ranked 91st nationally which is phenomenal, 12th in Florida, and No. 2 in 2A behind a 3-1 Cocoa team. The Tornadoes have a 32.6 strength of schedule; Cocoa at 38.4, rating as one of the highest nationwide as well. They don't play an easy schedule for sure. The top seven teams in Class 2A have strength of schedules over 30 points; Bolles at 31.3. That's tough stuff.
After a BYE week, Fleming Island coaches Derek Chipoletti and Chris Otero, both playing head coach roles thus far, have to return to be the first to test out the Ponte Vedra high-flying offense. The Sharks were the first victim to the surprisingly awesome Nease Panthers with a 24-7 loss, but they have rebounded with wins over Bartram Trail, Beachside and Menendez to set up a district match at Fleming Island.
Fleming Island has had their goods and bads and has the athletes to run with the Sharks; 745 yards rushing for Fleming Island in four games/720 for Ponte Vedra; 581 passing for Sharks/446 for Fleming Island with Cibastian Broughton seated for Riverside game.
And then there's Oakleaf. A massive 57-50 loss to Bolles showed off a bit of firepower for the Knights and coach Chris Foy but the highlights that came were a showcase of defense on both sides not keeping pace with the offensive firepower on both sides.
Fletcher, 4-1, with a 47-19 win over winless Sandalwood, and ranked 22nd in 6A with Oakleaf ninth with two rock and roll games; both losses in final moments, and Mandarin sitting at No. 3 and looming on the district slate.
On paper, this looks like a win for Oakleaf to shake off the last two games but "big boy" football has its funny quirks and teams still have to make tackles. Nease blew up Fletcher 39-0 in game four and Sandalwood is 0-5. Do the Math. Mandarin looms for Oakleaf as well. Keep an eye on ED White too, 4-1, with a tough Merritt Island team, also 4-1 (12th in 3A), next up for White. If White blows up Merritt Island, Oakleaf can't look past ED White to Mandarin.

Week Six/Sept. 27

Game to Watch
Orange Park at Middleburg
Orange Park surprised Middleburg last year and with one more win, the Raiders may have been in the playoffs. This year, this game may be the first game of consequence for the Broncos with their schedule much lighter than the previous two seasons.
Orange Park showed off their team speed in last year's upset and the Broncos will want some revenge.

Fletcher at Oakleaf
How will Oakleaf rebound from back-to-back last-minute losses to power teams?
Ponte Vedra at Fleming Island
Can week off refuel the hot Fleming Island engine with Broughton back in the cockpit?
Clay at Ridgeview
One of them has to win and that could change a season.

Upset
Keystone Heights at Bradford
I think Steve Reynolds gets his team ready for this game and the team responds. Big guys up front, tough running, good pass catchers and a test quarterback that can deliver the goods.
Bradford graduates their playmaker; QB/RB Daejon Shanks (1360 pass YDs, 18TDs, 1104 YDs rushing 14 TDs).
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